Interrogating the Ethiopian National Dialogue

Other than opinion pieces and news coverages, there lacks formal studies on the Ethiopian National Dialogue (END). More rigorous analyses drawing on varied data sources are needed for holistic understanding. This exploratory study aspires to extend the debate on this significant and timely national agenda. Specifically, the study answers these questions, How do Ethiopians and people of Ethiopian origin view of the END? What provisions are made available in the Proclamation that establishes and governs the END Commission? These questions are answered through methodically examining the Proclamation itself and surveying the opinions people hold about the national dialogue. Conceptions from policy analysis, critical discourse analysis and institutional theory are used as analytical tools. The existence of different opinions and disagreements among various political and opinion leaders and people on the most fundamental national issues triggered the establishment of the END. The analysis also indicated that the END is multiscalar (it has several levels of engagements) and multipurposed (it has socio-cultural, political and economic motives and purposes). Typical challenges linked to the END include the lack of conceptual clarity, issues linked to the credibility and acceptability of the Commission, and the inclusion or exclusion of terrorist organizations. Strategies for overcoming these and implications for planning and practicing the dialogues as well as for further study are identified. Copy and paste this link onto your browser to read the exploratory study, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vw70nhllJtV9t4L4G88qniTOPYYB5XdD/view?usp=sharing

Beyond #NoMore Rallies: Strategic Engagement of the Ethiopian Diaspora

 In one of my previous commentaries, I indicated the fact that most Ethiopians have just started to decisively check the advances TPLF is making. They are getting more organized and work in unison with the national defense force. For them, it is not all about saving their government from collapse; they simply do not afford to have another TPLF-led governance system or a quazi- or proxy one. Not least important is that over 95% of the Ethiopian population are faithful believers. They thus have a shared basis of understanding about the significance of self-defense, peace, unity, and justice. This understanding is the social glue that intersects all the ethnic groups despite the existence of real differences in other dimensions. All these plus the latest decisions made by the ruling Prosperity Party really scares and corners TPLF and its entourage.

Prospect for Peace in Ethiopia: The Obasanjo Factor

 The High Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for the Horn of Africa, the former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, issued on 13 November 202 a statement on the prospects of peace in Ethiopia. According to the statement, Mr Obasanjo “have had encouraging meetings with the leaders of Oromia and Amhara regions while I have scheduled to meet with the leadership of Afar region upon my return to Ethiopia. I have also met with leaders across the region including the Presidents of Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti, South Sudan, Somalia and the leadership of Sudan” (p.1). These “encouraging meetings” seemed to have convinced the High Representative to be “optimistic that common ground towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict can be secured” (p.1).

Ethiopia will Prevail!

 Ethiopia is being treated in the stages of world society as a ‘rockstar’ who has just fallen from grace for whatever reason. Multilateral organizations such as the EU and the UN and Western countries including the USA, France, Germany, Ireland, and the UK have repeatedly issued “deep concerns” and communiques about the current state of affairs in Ethiopia. The language used to convey their views are clearly domineering (e.g. the Ethiopian government MUST unconditionally declare ceasefire and MUST enter into unconditional dialogue with the TPLF) and belittling (their messages leave the impression that the Ethiopian government does not know what to do in the face of uncertainty). Guessing the possibility of worsening conditions, such countries and organizations are almost forcing their own citizens and employees to immediately leave Ethiopia. 

ሁሉን ነገር ትተን እኛው እንታረቅ!

     ኢትዮጵያ ያለችበትን ማኅበራዊ፣ ምጣኔ ሀብታዊና ፖለቲካዊ ቀውስ ሊፈታላት የሚችለው ፍቱን መድኃኒት ብሔራዊ መግባባትና እርቅ እንደሆነ የተለያዩ አካላት እየሰበኩ ይገኛሉ። ምዕራባዊ ሀገራትና የተባበሩት መንግስታት በቀጥታና በተዘዋዋሪ እያስተጋቡት ያለው አጀንዳ የበርካታ ኢትዮጵያውያንን ትኩረት ሳይስብ አልቀረም። በተለይም የቀውሱ ሁሉ ምንጭና ዋና ተዋናይ የሆነው ሕወሓት የብሔራዊ መግባባትና እርቅ ዋና አካል እንዲሆን መወትወታቸው ግርምትን ሳይፈጥር አልቀረም። ሕወሓት በበኩሉ መግባባትና እርቅ እንደሚካሄድ አምኖና እርግጠኛ ሆኖ አደራዳሪ በመምረጥ ላይ የተጠመደ ይመስላል። የኢትዮጵያ ማኅበራዊ የመገናኛ ብዙኃንም ብሔራዊ መግባባትንና እርቅን እንደ ትልቅ አጀንዳ አድርገው ባያራግቡትም የማይናቅ ትኩረት ሰጥተውታል። አንዳንዶች ሕወሓት በብሔራዊ መግባባትና እርቅ መሳተፍ እንደሌለበት ሳይጠቁሙ አላለፉም። 

The make-or-break situation in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia now faces colossal challenges of all sorts. The most threatening and incapacitating factor taking the entire country as a hostage is the aggressive emergence of new clones of oppressors, terminators and assassins who once considered themselves as among the oppressed majority. How or why are they terrorizing the entire nation? 

Ethiopia where the oppressed become the oppressor

Following the election on 2 April 2018 (by the EPRDF) of Dr Abiy Ahmed as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, there was massive, country-wide popular support for him and euphoria for social change. Substantial changes are made to cabinet composition. New commissions and agencies are established to harness smooth transition to genuine democracy. Political prisoners are released and the infamous Maekelawi jail is turned in to a museum. The secretive imperial palace (considered by the many as Death Valley, as many are killed and buried there by the Imperial and Derg regimes) is renovated and is made open for public visit. All types of media are set free and free speech is made part of public reality. Successful diplomatic initiatives are undertaken with neighbouring countries which mainly contributed to the award of the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize for 2019 to Dr Abiy.