Who will Win the War: Fano or the Government?

 As a Prelude

The federal government of Ethiopia's war for "disarmament" in the Amhara region has become much more  complicated and devastating than everyone’s expectation and imagination. The war is raging the entires of Gojjam, Gondar, Wollo, and Shewa. Even though the government has deployed heavy weaponry, including drones and fighter jets, it has not been able to check Fano's progress. It appears that the war has challenged the very integrity and existence of the regional and federal governments, let alone defeating Fano in a short period of time as the governement stipulated. It has also seriously put into question the moral discretion and integrity of the defense forces. The Amhara regional government has technically been effctively dissolved at some point. Even if it has been reportedly restructured itself lately, it is seen much like a lame duck who cannot leave its shore, Bahir Dar. 

Who will Win: Fano or the Government?

 

The government's war for "disarmament" in the Amhara region has become much more  complicated than everyone’s expectation. The war is raging the entires of Gojjam, Gondar, Wollo, and Shewa. Even though the government has deployed heavy weapons, including drones and fighter jets, it has not been able to check Fano's progress. It appears that the war has challenged the integrity and existence of the government, let alone defeating Fano in a short period of time as the governement stipulated. It also seriously questioned the moral discretion and integrity of the defense forces. The Amhara regional government has technically been effctively dissolved. Even if it has been reportedly restructured lately, it is much like a lame duck who cannot leave the shore, Bahir Dar.

የሚያሸንፈው ፋኖ ወይስ መንግስት?

 መንግስት በአማራ ክልል «ትጥቅ ለማስፈታት» የከፈተው ጦርነት ከሚጠብቀውና ከምንጠብቀው በላይ ገዝፎና ተወሳስቦ አግኝቶታል አግኝተነዋል። ጦርነቱ ተፋፍሞ ጎጃምን፣ ጎንደርን፣ ወሎንና ሸዋን በእምብርክክ እያስኬደ ነው። መንግስትም ድሮንን ጨምሮ ከባድ መሣሪያዎችን ሳይቀር ሥራ ላይ ቢያውልም የፋኖን ግስጋሴ መግታት አልቻለም። እንደታሰበው ባጭር ጊዜ ፋኖን ማሸነፍ ቀርቶ ጦርነቱ የመንግስትን ኅልውና ተገዳድሯል፣ የመከላከያን የሞራል ልእልናና ታማኝነትም ክፉኛ ጥያቄ ውስጥ አስገብቶታል። የአማራ ክልላዊ መንግስት ተበትኗል። እንደገና የተዋቀረውም ቢሆን ከባህር ዳር መውጣት የማይችል፣ የመወሰንና የማስፈጸም፣ የመፈጸምም አቅም የሌለው ሁለት ክንፎቹ እንደተሰበሩበት ዳክዬ ግቢ ውስጥ ሲያጠቅስ የሚውል ሆኗል። አዲስ የተሾሙት ፕሬዚዳንትም ቀደም ብሎ የባህር ዳር ከተማ ከንቲባ የነበረውን ያህል ሥልጣን እንኳን የላቸውም። በመሆኑም የአማራ ብልጽግና ከፍተኛ የሞራል ስብራት ብቻ ሳይሆን ኅልውናውም ለመጠበቅ የማይችልበት ሁኔታ ውስጥ ገብቷል። በሌሎቹ የብልጽግና አቻዎቹ ዓይን ሳይቀር ንቀትና ውርደት ደርሶበታል። በአጠቃላይ ሲታይ የብልጽግና መንግስትና ፓርቲ ኅልውናቸው አደጋ ላይ እንደሆነ በሚገባይ የተገነዘቡ ይመስላሉ። በአሁኑ ጊዜ ትልቁና አንገብጋቢው ጥያቄ ጦርነቱን ማን እንደሚያሸንፍ መገመቱ ላይ ነው። ሁሉቱም አካላት ድሉ የየራሳቸው እንደሆነ ደጋግመው ይናገራሉ። በእርስዎ አተያይ የሚያሸንፈው ፋኖ ነው ወይስ መንግስት? እንዴት?

The Fano Uprising

 Ethiopia becomes, more than ever before, an ailing nation under the leadership of Prime Minister (PM) Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party (PP). Hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians are killed in the TPLF-induced war, not to mention the countless number of people who became physically and psychologically incapacitated. Active fighting still ensues in Amhara, Oromia and other regions. Thousands of innocent Amharas are assasinated in cold blood in various parts of the Oromia region and elsewhere in the country. Hundreds of thousands are forcefully displaced from their homes and have lost their hard-earned properties. Thousands of Ethiopian youth left the country often attempting to live as ordinary human beings in foreign lands; many perished in the unforgiving deserts and seas while crossing and others are languishing in prisons in many African and Arabian countries. Critical journalissts, businessmen, youth, teachers and professors, and peasants are arrested in mass. Many are taken to some of the most inhospitable places in Ethiopia. 

የመንግስትና የቤተ ክርስቲያን ስምምነት እንዴት?

    ጥር 14 ቀን 2015 ዓ/ም የተካሄደው ሕገ ወጥ የኤጲስ ቆጶሳት ሲመት ለኢትዮጵያ ኦርቶዶክስ ተዋሕዶ ቤተ ክርስቲያን ብቻ ሳይሆን ለመንግስትና ለሀገራችን ኢትዮጵያም ከፍተኛ ውጥረትን አስከትሏል። ቤተ ክርስቲያንም ሿሚዎችንም ተሿሚዎችንም አውግዛ ለየቻቸው። መንግስትም በበኩሉ ሕግ የማስከበር ሥራውን እንዲወጣ ቤተ ክርስቲያን አሳሰበች። ይሁንና መንግስት ለሕገ ወጡ ቡድን ሀሳብና ሞራል በመስጠት እንዲሁም ታጣቂዎችን በማሰማራት ሕገ ወጡ ቡድን አብያተ ክርስቲያናትንና መንበረ ጵጵስናዎችን በኃይል እንዲቆጣጠር ማገዙን ቀጠለ። በመሆኑም ጉዳዩ በዋናነት በመንግስትና በቤተ ክርስቲያን መካከል ሆነ። መንግስት ሕግ የማስከበር ግዴታውን እንዲወጣ ቅዱስ ሲኖዶስ ላለፉት ሦስት ሳምንታት ሲወተውት ቆይቷል። የካቲት ሦስት ቀን 2015 ዓ/ም መንግስትና ሲኖዶሱ ለሦስት ሰዓታት የፈጀ ስብሰባ በቤተ መንግስት አካሂደዋል። ይህን ተከትሎ ዛሬ የካቲት አራት ቀን 2015 ዓ/ም ቅዱስ ሲኖዶስ በሰጠው መግለጫ እንዳመለከተው መንግሥት የቤተ ክርስቲያኒቱን አቋም ሙሉ በሙሉ ተቀብሏል። 

Interrogating the Ethiopian National Dialogue

Other than opinion pieces and news coverages, there lacks formal studies on the Ethiopian National Dialogue (END). More rigorous analyses drawing on varied data sources are needed for holistic understanding. This exploratory study aspires to extend the debate on this significant and timely national agenda. Specifically, the study answers these questions, How do Ethiopians and people of Ethiopian origin view of the END? What provisions are made available in the Proclamation that establishes and governs the END Commission? These questions are answered through methodically examining the Proclamation itself and surveying the opinions people hold about the national dialogue. Conceptions from policy analysis, critical discourse analysis and institutional theory are used as analytical tools. The existence of different opinions and disagreements among various political and opinion leaders and people on the most fundamental national issues triggered the establishment of the END. The analysis also indicated that the END is multiscalar (it has several levels of engagements) and multipurposed (it has socio-cultural, political and economic motives and purposes). Typical challenges linked to the END include the lack of conceptual clarity, issues linked to the credibility and acceptability of the Commission, and the inclusion or exclusion of terrorist organizations. Strategies for overcoming these and implications for planning and practicing the dialogues as well as for further study are identified. Copy and paste this link onto your browser to read the exploratory study, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vw70nhllJtV9t4L4G88qniTOPYYB5XdD/view?usp=sharing

Beyond #NoMore Rallies: Strategic Engagement of the Ethiopian Diaspora

 In one of my previous commentaries, I indicated the fact that most Ethiopians have just started to decisively check the advances TPLF is making. They are getting more organized and work in unison with the national defense force. For them, it is not all about saving their government from collapse; they simply do not afford to have another TPLF-led governance system or a quazi- or proxy one. Not least important is that over 95% of the Ethiopian population are faithful believers. They thus have a shared basis of understanding about the significance of self-defense, peace, unity, and justice. This understanding is the social glue that intersects all the ethnic groups despite the existence of real differences in other dimensions. All these plus the latest decisions made by the ruling Prosperity Party really scares and corners TPLF and its entourage.