I feel as if we are in the early and middle 60s (Ethn. Cal.), when the default news and public discourse were on regime change, possible clashes, and the like. Visit any blog and/or website, you will get articles on how PM Meles has been doing recently and what he is up to. I very much wish him to stay in good health and witness, if not participate in, the next change. If I were him, I would have facilitated a peaceful and truly democratic change in Ethiopia. That way, I could 'save' my name for centuries to come, and above all, Ethiopia could once again emerge as loveable and livable.
Temesgen Dessalegn of Feteh made a wonderful analysis of
what is happening and is likely to happen if the PM could not make it to his office this time. He presented two possible scenarios: one where Meles changes his mental set, ideology, policies, and overall political platform and declare and contribute towards a democratic change. Releasing all political prisoners, abrogating recent laws and policies that handicap opposition politics, dismantling the electoral board and establishing a true independent one, and national reconciliation including the unconditional, and genuine call to the Diaspora to work and live in Ethiopia with dignity are included within this scenario. Personally, I wish for this scenario to happen, as that will bring an end to Ethiopia's troubled politics for good. It is also a golden opportunity for the governing party to 'undo' all the evils associated with it.
PM Meles Zenawi, Google picture
The other scenario is that Ethiopian military takes power and brings Meles to court as a scapegoat to all the odds done, as what happened in Egypt. The military could then facilitate elections in a manner that might not leave the military empty handed. The goal is to have a modestly powered president who should consult the military to make the country's toughest decisions. This option is not as attractive as the first one, as it could not result in genuine power transfer. There is a possibility that the military resort to their AK 47's as usual. So, there is no assurance for sustained peace and democracy here.
Other people are suggesting another likely scenario for the power struggle. That today's top politicians might 'wage' wars against each other and the ones closest to the military could emerge victorious. They could then make a little ‘massage’ to the politics and would declare a transitional government, very much like what the Derg did. Their goal might be to come back to power with another ‘mask’. That would disappoint the Ethiopian people for the third grand time.
What is surprising is that the analysis made so far did not seem to acknowledge the likelihood that the opposition might take control of power. There is a tendency to overlook this segment of the population who is said to make a neck-to-neck struggle with EPRDF. My idea is that if they (opposition politicians) are smart, they could sell themselves out to the military and the general public. How to do that, that is not within my reach. They have to figure that out quite well and in good time. If they do not come together and craft a working platform, they may risk being forgotten by the Ethiopian people once and for all. If no one is there to guide a revolution or change of any kind, the Ethiopian mass may take the initiative and the coordination, and in the process may create genuine leaders.