A More Peaceful World in the Future but Ethiopia
I have read a couple of papers/reports that conclude that Ethiopia is one of the few countries in the world that would experience conflict in the future. While I was thinking about the reports, I got another one that speculates that the world would be a more peaceful place to live (with limited conflict) in the next decades. This study is conducted by Professor Håvard Hegre of the Department of Political Science at the University of Oslo in cooperation with the Oslo Peace Research Institute.
Based on sensational conflict simulations, Ethiopia has the greatest risk of conflict in the next five decades. According to the study, "In 5 years the risk of conflict will be greatest in India, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Uganda and Burma. In 40 years the risk will be greatest in India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Those countries in which the risk of conflict will sink most in the next 40 years are Algeria, Colombia, Turkey and Thailand. The conflict level will increase in countries like Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi and China" (Apollon, University of Oslo research magazine). Even the Middle East is projected to be relatively safer.
It is good to make a closer analysis of this and other studies as that would stimulate furhter discussion among Ethiopians. In the meantime, the summarized study is available at http://www.apollon.uio.no/english/articles/2012/peaceful-world-awaits.html.